Here at DraftDeck, we are driven by a singular vision: to create the things we sought as collectors, analysts, and fans of the game. Today, we're proud to present one facet of that vision—a meticulously crafted metric that brings a rigorous, numbers-driven approach to the valuation of baseball prospects’ rookie cards.
Our passion for the game and its future stars led us to ask a compelling question: how can we objectively compare a player's potential to the market value of their collectible cards? Whose cards have a good statistical chance at increasing in value and which prospects already have had the top priced in? We sought a beacon in the fog of speculation—a metric grounded not in pundit predictions or market whims, but in the concrete bedrock of statistical analysis. When we couldn’t find it, we built it.
With that said, let me start with what this is not. This is NOT a list of who we think will be the best players in the future. Rather, it is a list meant to quantify which prospect's cards are overvalued on the market and which are undervalued. Through the power of complex algorithms, we've distilled a wide array of factors—wRC+, ISO, OPS, BB/K%, BABIP, and beyond—into a single, definitive 'Player Score'. This score is a pure reflection of a batter's on-field prowess, unclouded by opinion or bias. We then juxtapose this score against the current market value of their most coveted cards—their Bowman Chrome 1st Rookie Card Autos—to gauge a hobby value.
But the journey doesn’t end there. Our algorithm dives deeper, taking into account the intangibles—potential, age, position bias, how fast they've progressed through the minor leagues, and the influence of an organization's market size—to forge a 'Best Value' score. This unique metric shines a light on the market's inefficiencies, identifying players whose cards are either hidden gems or overvalued cardboard.
The list we below is the fruit of our labor—a labor born from the desire for a tool that did not exist, so we created it, in true DraftDeck spirit. It represents the pinnacle of analytics and sabermetrics applied to the 'Top 100' batting prospects. We have also included two sleeper picks outside of the 'Top 100' that our numbers can't ignore. Each week throughout the offseason we will continue to reveal a few more sleepers that stand out, and three times a year (Spring Training, All-Star Break, and off-season), we will update the Top 100 Best Value scores and rankings. The list below is rooted in the latest sales data (130Point) and prospect data (FanGraphs) as of November 15, 2023.
Note: This is not financial advice, but rather a compass for navigating the vast sea of prospects and prices. It's a tool for the savvy collector, the stat-hungry fan, and the value-seeking enthusiast.
TIER 1:
Despite commanding an eye-watering average price of $485 for his Bowman Chrome 1st Auto, Holliday stands out as the top value pick among the Top 100 hitters. His exceptional player score, accrued during a meteoric rise through the minors, justifies the buzz surrounding him. Our analysis and algorithmic deep dive reveal the solid numbers underpinning the hype. His in-game power may currently reflect a modest .176 ISO, yet considering his youth, projected power, and astute baseball acumen, we're betting on significant growth in this area. Shelling out $485 for a prospect yet to debut in the majors might seem steep, but Holliday presents a compelling case to make such an investment. The data strongly suggests he's worth the gamble.
TIER 2:
In the realm of data-driven analysis, outliers inevitably capture attention, and Dyan Jorge is the notable exception in our Tier 2 rankings. While his player score may lag behind others in his bracket, it's the remarkably low $9 average price for his Bowman Chrome 1st Auto that nudges him up the tier list. The figures suggest that although his ceiling may not be the highest, his card, at such a nominal cost, is a bargain too tempting to bypass.
Then there's Jorge's Rockies compatriot, Adael Amador, whose robust player score is hard to discount, particularly given his moderate $47 average card value. Our insights point to his current market and positional profile as key factors in this valuation. Were Amador in the lineup for a high-profile team like the Yankees or Red Sox, his market value could see a substantial increase. He represents a strategic pick for me—betting on his potential and the possibility of a market upswing.
TIER 3:
A conversation about this tier simply isn’t complete without addressing Jackson Chourio. One of the most eagerly watched names on the Top 100 list, his player score came in just shy of expectations. His rapid progression through the minor leagues at a young age and the potential for a shift to a more lucrative market are definite pluses. However, the $290 average cost for his Bowman 1st auto gives me pause. That being said, if Chourio can tap into his power promise and elevate his .185 ISO, his future as a dual threat in power and speed could very well justify the current market faith.
Similarly, Jackson Merrill's reputation hasn't quite been mirrored by his Player Score. The #7 prospect's rookie auto sits at a market price of $44, a figure that might tempt some. Yet, at this price bracket, I find myself more inclined to opt for Curtis Mead, with his established power (evidenced by an ISO over .200) and superior plate discipline, as a more compelling pick.
TIER 4:
Within this tier, Bleis, Dominguez, and Salas particularly catch the eye, yet I find myself steering clear of all three. The markets of Boston and New York naturally inflate the values of Bleis and Dominguez—players from such high-profile areas tend to fetch higher prices. However, this premium is a double-edged sword; a potential trade to a smaller market could diminish their value, a risk not quite offset by their current Player Scores.
As for Salas, he's been surrounded by a buzz within the 2023 Bowman class, and his rapid ascent to AA as a 17-year-old is noteworthy. Nonetheless, the market longevity for catchers is notoriously volatile, and Salas’ limited track record at this point makes his $213 average price hard to justify. My advice? Wait it out. Let the excitement around the next crop of Bowman prospects settle, then consider making a move if Salas still figures in your long-term plans. In the meantime, you might be better off investing in someone like Evan Carter, who has proven his mettle with a major league team poised for contention.
TIER 5:
TIER 6:
The prospects in Tiers 6 and 7 present a gamble I'm hesitant to take. However, if I were to place a bet, Acuna's potential is the most enticing, largely due to his family ties. As the sibling of MVP Ronald Acuna, expectations are high, and his market value is buoyed by the hope that he'll replicate his brother's major league success—especially with his recent shift to the high-profile New York market from Texas. His player score suggests otherwise and for that reason, I think I will take my money to the higher tiers.
TIER 7:
Druw Jones and Luisangel Acuna have a common thread—both their reputations are bolstered by their baseball pedigrees. With Jones being the progeny of Braves' great Andruw Jones, expectations were naturally sky-high. Yet, Jones's path in the minors has been beleaguered by a combination of injuries and underperformance, casting a shadow on the value of his Bowman Chrome 1st auto card, especially at the steep $128 asking price. Those invested in his cards are undoubtedly hoping for a turnaround, eager to see him fulfill the potential his last name suggests.
UNRANKED (NO BOWMAN 1ST AUTO):
The remaining prospects on our list fall into a unique category: they either never had a Bowman Chrome 1st Auto card released or are awaiting their first issue. It’s clear from their player scores that some are worth pursuing in card breaks as the Bowman Draft set rolls out—Langford is a prime example. However, I anticipate that the initial prices for these cards will be inflated due to the considerable buzz around this draft class. Given the hype versus the limited data we have on these players, I’m inclined to steer clear of purchasing their individual cards on the open market for the moment. Instead, I'll be relying on a bit of luck to snag cards like those of Crews, Langford, Clark, Walcott, Jenkins, and Troy in breaks.
Please remember, this information should serve as a guide through the complex landscape of prospect potentials and their associated costs, not as financial counsel. It's crafted to aid the astute collector, provide insight for the statistics-driven aficionado, and offer direction for those in search of value in the market.
Happy hunting and be sure to check back as we begin to release some of our sleeper picks for guys outside of the Top 100 as there are definitely some deals to be had!
Commentaires