Welcome, folks, to the Week 14 NFL DFS Flashback Breakdown! Here, we'll dive into the standout fantasy performers at each position, reflecting on whether their success was foreseeable—and if not, why? While numerous articles delve into intricate stats, coverages, schemes, and detailed route analyses, applying these insights to the upcoming week can be challenging. While considering these factors in this breakdown, I've opted for a KISS (Keep It Simple, Stupid) approach. Over-analyzing DFS is a pitfall; often, what we seek is right before us, and by not getting in our own way, clearer patterns emerge. Additionally, it highlights the high variance in DFS; sometimes, a touch of luck dictates outcomes, and it's essential not to be too hard on ourselves. Hopefully, this read is enjoyable, and the highlighted players are those you confidently included in your lineup, contributing to a successful week!
The players covered will ONLY be from the main slate of games (all 1 pm EST and 4 pm EST games on Sunday). Let’s get it to it folks!
The Quarterbacks:
#1: Lamar Jackson with 35.64 points
#2: Desmond Ridder with 29.38 points
#3: Brock Purdy with 25.42 points
#4: Joe Flacco with 25.34 points
#5: Justin Fields with 24.72 points
"Steer clear of the northeast games this week due to the brutal weather. It’s going to be windy and soaking wet!"
I think we might be misled about how weather affects games and players, especially in fantasy sports. I'm an avid listener to NFL podcasts and talk shows, and former quarterbacks have surprised me by talking about weather. It's contrary to what we usually believe. Snow games actually help many QBs grip the ball better (who knew?), and rain doesn't affect the ball's grip as much as common sense suggests. With the modern gloves receivers use, catching the ball in the rain isn't like it was 20 years ago. But it’s the wind that really impacts games the most.
Remember this: if a game has rain in the forecast but the wind stays below 15 mph, don’t count it out (unless it’s a terrible matchup or it's definitely going to be a heavy downpour).
I learned my lesson last week by listening too much to weather forecasts that claimed these teams could only rely on running the ball.
I was excited about the Baltimore matchup. The Rams have been impressive this year, surprisingly solid on defense with their 'bend but don’t break' approach. However, their D-Line, outside of Donald, struggles against the run with a short rotation of only 6 guys, and their linebackers aren't intimidating. They rank as the 8th worst team in tackling per PFF and are the lowest graded in pass coverage. Against Lamar Jackson? That's a recipe for success. And the weather didn’t matter. Lamar ran for 70 yards, threw for over 300, and scored 3 touchdowns, making him this week’s #1 fantasy quarterback. If you saw through the forecasts and played him in DFS despite many fading him due to weather predictions, well done!"
The Running Backs:
#1: Breece Hall with 26.60 points
#2: James Cook with 25.10 points
#3: Rachaad White with 24.50 points
#4: Joe Mixon with 21.50 points
#5: Austin Ekeler with 21.00 points
'Tis the season to "Deck the Halls!" – my attempt at being creative.
Anyways... Breece Hall's stats this week didn't match the typical #1 RB performance we'd expect. If I told you he was up against the league’s second-worst graded tackling team and the fifth-worst graded rushing defense (according to PFF) and still finished as RB1, you'd probably assume he rushed for 100 yards and scored 2 touchdowns. Instead, he managed only 40 rushing yards and zero touchdowns. Surprisingly, he accumulated his points as a receiver, hauling in 8 passes for 86 yards and a TD.
Houston's deficiencies in tackling and struggles against rushing attacks (an ongoing issue for a couple of years) made it no surprise that they gave up significant fantasy points. However, what really caught attention was Zach Wilson's unexpected prowess in passing (excluding Breece Hall). Despite Houston's solid pass defense throughout the year, graded well above average, and the anticipation of terrible weather, it felt like another low-scoring offensive game was looming. But once again, weather had minimal impact, showcasing the high variability in DFS. This game's outcome might have only had a 1-in-10 chance of occurring if simulated.
Breece Hall seemed like a solid play on paper before the game and ultimately proved to be the best choice among RBs on the main slate, despite the game's unpredictable nature. Many had him on their roster, but if you were one of them, kudos to you!
The Wide Receivers:
#1: Deebo Samuel with 37.00 points
#2: Drake London with 32.20 points
#3: Cooper Kupp with 28.50 points
#4: DJ Moore with 26.80 points
#5: Garrett Wilson with 23.10 points
Back-to-back weeks for Deebo topping the charts! One more week of this and it will start to feel like the music top 10 chart every time Taylor Swift releases… never mind. There are some things that just go together. Pumpkin pie and watching the Lions lose, ham and cheese, steak and red wine… and Deebo owning the Seahawks. Whenever Deebo is going up against a team that plays zone coverage at a high rate, he should be on your radar FYI. Just look at what he did to the Rams earlier this year. Seattle has played zone coverage at one of the highest clips this year. Add in the fact that out of the last 5 times Deebo has played Seattle, he has finished as a WR1 4 of those times, with 3 of them being top 1 or 2 finishes. He was owned at a decent clip this week in large contests, so he wasn’t flying under the radar, but he proved to be good “chalk” to eat this week at just 6.8k and rewarded owners with a 5x point total compared to his price tag.
If you ran it back with Deebo again this week, well done!
The incredible position in fantasy football that we are forced to play aka Tight Ends:
#1: Evan Engram with 32.50 points
#2: Davis Njoku with 27.10 points
#3: Isaih Likely with 19.30 points
#4: George Kittle with 16.60 points
#5: Davis Allen with 15.00 points
Davis who?? What an opportunity for the rookie this week with Higbee out and then Hunter Long getting carted off. Had to throw a shoutout to a new name in fantasy this week… at the tight end position, naturally.
Ever since I inserted sarcasm into the position groups name, we have gotten 4-5 guys who have balled out in comparison to previous weeks. I’ll keep the trend going, so fire up tight ends with confidence because they are fantasy relevant again! Evan Engram surprised many of us, not because he is incapable of performances like this week but who he did it against. The Browns have been very good against opposing team’s passing attacks and, on average, have only allowed 2.9 receptions for 27.5 yards per game to TE’s.
There were a few factors though that make this make more sense though. Cleveland has outstanding cover corners, and they love to play man coverage, even with Denzel Ward out of the lineup. Christian Kirk was out of this contest and to no offense of Parker Washington, Trevor Lawrence only had Calvin Ridley to throw the ball too. I know Zay Jones is there but his ability to act as a ghost in this offense is just as impressive as the number of punts the Carolina Panthers have in a game. All that said, Evan Engram was going to be forced to get a decent target share because of the lack of options elsewhere. What really helped this happen though was the emergence of Joe Flacco and the points Cleveland was able to score, which continued to force Jacksonville to play catchup. Cleveland’s offense showed signs of life last week through the air and teams have been attacking Jacksonville this way (Jake Browning coming out party) so there was always the possibility of Cleveland putting up points (back to Bengals putting up 34 last week) and forcing Lawrence to the air.
Engram presented an opportunity to gain leverage on the field based more along the thought of opportunities gained (with injuries and possible game script) vs matchup alone. If you played Engram, well done and hope you cashed in this week!
Thank you for reading and we’ll see you back here next week!
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