Welcome, folks, to the Week 13 NFL DFS Flashback Breakdown! Here, we'll dive into the standout fantasy performers at each position, reflecting on whether their success was foreseeable—and if not, why? While numerous articles delve into intricate stats, coverages, schemes, and detailed route analyses, applying these insights to the upcoming week can be challenging. While considering these factors in this breakdown, I've opted for a KISS (Keep It Simple, Stupid) approach. Over-analyzing DFS is a pitfall; often, what we seek is right before us, and by not getting in our own way, clearer patterns emerge. Additionally, it highlights the high variance in DFS; sometimes, a touch of luck dictates outcomes, and it's essential not to be too hard on ourselves. Hopefully, this read is enjoyable, and the highlighted players are those you confidently included in your lineup, contributing to a successful week!
The players covered will ONLY be from the main slate of games (all 1 pm EST and 4 pm EST games on Sunday). Let’s get it to it folks!
The Quarterbacks:
#1: Brock Purdy with 32.46 points
#2: Jalen Hurts with 23.92 points
#3: Matthew Stafford with 22.96 points
#4: Gardner Minshew II with 22.68 points
#5: Sam Howell with 20.18 points
What a statement by the 49ers! This game had a little bit of everything—except the close ending many of us anticipated. Picture this parlay: a player and the head of security getting ejected (side question: who escorts the head of security out? Their employees? Who keeps them in check? Anyways…), and oh yeah, the 49ers winning by 23 in Philly. Cha-ching!
Let’s dive in. Brock Purdy topped the main slate as the #1 fantasy QB with 29.5 points. He threw for over 300 yards, securing a +3 bonus, and managed 4 touchdowns. The truly impressive part, or perhaps something we should be accustomed to by now, is that he achieved this with only 19 completions. He's an incredibly efficient QB, a factor to always bear in mind. It’s tempting to favor a player like Sam Howell, who consistently attempts 40+ passes weekly, based solely on volume. While not a bad consideration, this mindset can create blind spots. And if this simple idea alters your selection, you won’t be alone. The big wins often come from strategic decisions that differ from the crowd's.
Could we have foreseen this? In short, yes. Why? Running the ball against the Eagles doesn’t usually yield much success. Their strength lies upfront, but their secondary is vulnerable. Check their past games to see how QBs fared against them (hint: Sam Howell was part of that discussion…). Considering Purdy has Deebo, Aiyuk, Kittle, and McCaffrey as targets, it’s not surprising that exploiting mismatches in the passing game was their focus.
A key question in DFS: What is Vegas signaling? Facing Vegas head-on leads to eventual loss—sorry, that’s just how it goes. But when not facing them directly (like in DFS), we can use their insights and predictions to our advantage. It might sound simple, but consider the over/under at 47.5 and the line being SF -3.5. That’s a decent point total, especially when compared to other games on the slate. Not the highest, but within 2 points of the highest and in the top 4. So, Vegas (comprised of individuals much savvier than the average sports fan, probably crunching numbers all day without knowing who Brock Purdy is) signals a potentially higher-scoring game rather than a defensive battle. Seems straightforward, right? Additionally, the line being -3.5 suggests a competitive game, implying both teams should score to meet that point total. The game didn’t end up close, but both teams did score (Philly’s 19 might seem low, but nearly 20 indicates a 28-20 game would've hit the over, so not as low when considering this).
Ultimately, if you played Brock Purdy, it was under the assumption of a close, high-scoring game, noting the mismatch between SF's passing game and PHI's secondary. Not playing him might have been influenced by other viable options (like Tua against a weak WAS defense with Tyreek and Waddle), or on the flip side, Sam Howell (who usually throws a lot, statistically performs well, and was expected to trail, hence more passing playing catch-up). If you leaned towards these options, you weren't alone! I wonder how often in DFS the phrase “if it’s too good to be true, then it probably is” rings accurate. Nevertheless, herd mentality is real, and you don’t want to be the outlier left in the dust.
Verdict: Most industry experts had Purdy as a top 10 play, but only a few sites placed him in the top 5. At 6.1k, Purdy provided excellent salary relief compared to Tua and was even cheaper than Sam Howell. Those who played him could splurge elsewhere, pairing him with top-tier WRs and RBs, or stack him with Deebo Samuel at 6.2k, the top stack of the slate. Having this stack likely put you in the money. He didn’t “break the slate,” but no other QB scored 25 points. This play wasn’t under the radar, but with several players scoring well, there were other lineup differentiations while still capitalizing on this high-octane offensive game environment.
If you played Brock Purdy (and stacked with Deebo), well done!
The Running Backs:
#1: Alvin Kamara with 28.90 points
#2: Derrick Henry with 28.00 points
#3: James Conner with 25.5 points
#4: Chuba Hubbard with 25.4 points
#5: De’Von Achane with 25.3 points
I’ll be the first to admit, this wasn’t the top 5 list I expected this week. As I delved into each player's performance, most of these guys wouldn't have been my top picks. Derrick Henry, sure. Alvin Kamara is always on the radar, and apparently, Achane consistently scores 20+ points whenever he plays a full game. But James Conner against that Steelers defense? Chuba facing the Titans defense, known for funneling plays to the air? Embrace the variance, folks! That's how daily fantasy football rolls. Remember, each week is just one game; it's not an average of the season. So, the rate of variance we see is much higher compared to viewing an entire season where the "cream rises to the top." This is why I love DFS. If it were easy, none of us would have real day jobs.
Alvin Kamara finishes as the #1 fantasy RB against a Lions defense that's been solid against rushing attacks. But look at his stats: only 51 yards rushing on 14 carries. It's not like they cracked the Lions' defense wide open or the Lions had a bad game upfront. Timely scoring (2 rushing touchdowns) and success as a pass catcher allowed him to rack up points. We all know Kamara will get his touches, so seeing him haul in 6 catches for an additional 58 yards isn’t surprising. Given the injury situation(s) with the Saints and the anticipated negative game script for their rushing offense (with Detroit heavily favored), tapping into Kamara's pass-catching skills made sense.
Nevertheless, while we can understand why he scored points, it's unlikely many had him pegged as the #1 fantasy back this week, especially given his high price tag. With a $50k team salary in DFS, we don’t need perfection when building lineups; it forces us to make strategic salary sacrifices for other high-value plays we believe in more. Many leaned towards Tyreek Hill this week for good reason, but that limits exposure to other top-priced players. Kamara topped RB scoring but didn’t exactly "break the slate." Cheaper options like Derrick Henry at 6.8k were more obvious and provided flexibility elsewhere.
Verdict: Most would rank Kamara as a top 10 play, not #1 overall. Missing out on him didn’t hurt much, nor did having him lead to a big win. I like to assess if players can 4x their salary in points. For instance, Kamara was 8.3k; I’d expect him to score 30-34 points this week to justify his salary. My target is 200 points for the lineup (50k salary x 4 = 200). Not always possible, but hitting this benchmark means a profitable lineup. This guideline helps choose players when torn between two, considering who has the best chance to exceed their salary. DFS involves high variance, and nobody bats a thousand.
There were numerous viable options and plenty of WRs who scored 5x or more points over their salary, aiding lineups regardless. If you had Kamara, well done!
The Wide Receivers:
#1: Deebo Samuel with 38.8 points
#2: Nico Collins with 37.1 points
#3: Tyreek Hill with 35.3 points
#4: Mike Evans with 32.2 points
#5: Michael Pittman with 30.5 points
I've already broken down the SF and Philly game (see The Quarterbacks section about Brock Purdy), so instead of repeating much of the same info for Deebo, let’s cover a mini-group article of the other 4.
But first, if you chose Deebo this week, great play! Loved the matchup for SF pass catchers this week and the projected game environment.
Let’s dive into the “best of the rest” and start with Mr. Collins. We know CJ Stroud is the real deal, and while Tank Dell seemed to be taking over the lion’s share of targets, there was still quality volume left for their 1b. Tank Dell left the game early with a season-ending injury, making it evident that when he went down, Collins became Stroud's trusted alpha. Additionally, Stroud's security blanket at tight end, Schultz, was out too. With limited target competition and Stroud's excellent form, Nico had a breakout opportunity. However, Tank's injury wasn't something we could predict. It reinforces the point I’ve mentioned: DFS is a game of variance. You base decisions on available information, but luck can swing things. If you started Nico, you witnessed a solid play turn into a great one.
Tyreek Hill was the consensus #1 ranked WR this week for obvious reasons. Facing the Commanders, a blowout was anticipated. Yet, even in such games, the obvious plays shouldn’t be overlooked—teams need to score before it becomes a blowout. This fundamental fact sometimes gets forgotten when we try to get too cute with our plays.
Mike Evans joined Jerry Rice after his 150+ yards receiving last week, achieving 1,000 yards in each of his first 10 seasons. Despite the lackluster matchup against Carolina, Evans proved his consistency regardless of the QB throwing to him. It could be Tom Brady, Jameisisisis:
or Baker firkin Mayfield. Doesn’t matter – he just balls out more often than not. Sometimes, great receivers remain great despite the team’s performance. Many overlooked him among the big-name wide receivers this week, but those who didn’t, kudos!
Lastly, Michael Pittman. Against Tennessee’s pass funnel defense, which struggles against the pass, Pittman, a target magnet with Minshew at QB, flourished. There’s nothing groundbreaking here—it's about identifying such matchups when building player pools pre-weekend. Similar to targeting Cincinnati against tight ends, facing teams like the Titans prompts the question: who are they playing, who's their QB, and who’s their top target? Those who recognized this mismatch and went with Pittman this week, well done!
The incredible position in fantasy football that we are forced to play aka Tight Ends:
#1: Sam LaPorta with 32.00 points
#2: Trey McBride with 22.90 points
#3: Jake Ferguson with 19.70 points
#4: Harrison Bryant with 15.90 points
#5: George Kittle with 10.80 points
Okay, sorry for the dig, tight ends. At the beginning of the season, it seemed to be setting up for another disappointing year for the position group. However, the emergence of rookies LaPorta and Dalton, along with second-year McBride overtaking Ertz, has injected some excitement back into this group. With Jake Ferguson's new opportunity and Dalton Schultz's landing spot, there seem to be more viable options now compared to the previous few years.
Sam LaPorta finished the week as TE #1, racking up a whopping 32 DK points. At 5.6k, this was a near-slate-breaking play at the position—unless you had McBride, given the significant drop-off in points among the top 5. Playing LaPorta likely led to placing in the money this week, barring a meltdown from the rest of your squad. The industry largely ranked him as a top 5 fantasy play at TE, deservedly so, considering not just the matchup but also the volume he's seen in the high-scoring Detroit offense. New Orleans' significant defensive injuries were evident, especially in the trenches, affecting their ability to handle the run, which Detroit capitalized on, enabling their play-action game featuring both ASB and LaPorta.
The tight end position has been tough to figure out due to past seasons' unreliable production, unless you pay a premium for Kelce or Andrews. This led many, myself included, to seek salary relief at the position. The difference between 5th and 10th at the position seemed marginal, prompting the question: why pay more for disproportionate production?
The pendulum is swinging back for tight ends to regain fantasy relevance, becoming worthy of salary allocation. LaPorta and McBride are prime examples, even with Kelce (played in the Sunday night game), Hockenson (on bye), and Andrews (injured) out of the player pool.
Verdict: Perhaps it’s time to start investing more in mid to high-tier tight ends again? LaPorta was a top 5 play as mentioned, and few would disagree. Many were caught off guard opting for fill-ins like Brevin Jordan, or in other weeks, players like Isaiah Likely, when LaPorta, McBride, Kelce, and Hockenson have been much stronger plays. It might be nearing the time to adapt to the 'stop being cute' mindset… until next week, when Luke Musgrave unexpectedly scores 25 points.
Good luck in week 14 and we'll be here to breakdown the top plays next week!
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